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Showing posts from August, 2019

Creepy Pre-Lehman Déjà Vu

That Creepy Feeling About two weeks ago, as I was making myself a cup of tea at the office, I was suddenly overwhelmed by a feeling of déjà vu. August 2019 felt a lot like the August of 2008. Something in that brew was unnervingly familiar, and I don't mean Earl Grey. It was the combination of faltering economic fundamentals with stubbornly rising US equity market, mixed with the unhurried pace of the day-to-day business in the financial industry that touched a nerve in me. Come to think of it, back in 2008 everyone knew there was a lot of debt out there, even though nobody was sure how much exactly. Bear Sterns had nearly gone belly up and was acquired by J.P. Morgan earlier in spring, so the risks were hardly imaginary. Lehman was still around and its executives were criss-crossing the Pacific courting Korea to prop them up by buying a stake. Yet, economy looked good enough. The FT ran a column called Commodities Boom, emerging markets were growing like crazy. So, the ban